The government's total inaction eventually prompted the sending of a detailed email (based on experience living in Hong Kong through SARS; see below) to the Prime Minister and also various members of our government tasked with the crisis management. It was sent 21 MARCH.
Our Government’s Response to Covid-19
I think I speak for all New Zealanders in saying that I hope our country can be spared the fully devastating effects of the Covid-19 crisis. Having been through the SARS crisis in Hong Kong and witnessed first-hand the measures put in place by government to halt infection within the community, I am concerned that the New Zealand Government’s management of this current crisis is scarily short-sighted and here’s why.
From what I can glean from the news, current management allows NZ citizens and permanent residents to enter the country from overseas hot-spots (at any rate and regardless of the ability or desire of the NZ government to actively manage these arrivals), and a weakly-managed self-imposed isolation of these people. This approach is founded on the thoroughly fallible beliefs that the number of infections is small (proving to be wrong by the day), people act responsibly and do truly self-isolate (also proving to be wrong with several accounts of isolation-breakers caught in the community), and the down-side risk of getting it wrong is small (hmm, ask those people in Europe what they think about this).
New Zealand has but two options to beat this Covid-19 beast.
(1) We can continue to risk a “cat out of the bag” approach with the development of community transmission, then attempt to futilely reverse this, as is the case with most European nations at present, OR
(2) we can utilize our geographic isolation to the fullest (effectively isolate the New Zealand population with managed return of Kiwi overseas within an effective return protocol ) and use our resources to isolate and halt existing infection domestically (the “keep the cat in the bag” approach).
The economic ramifications of the “cat out of the bag” approach are horrifically catastrophic, not only to the external economy (e.g. tourism and overseas education industries) but the internal domestic economy as well. As the entire population essentially self-isolates in response to the risk of community-acquired infection, the economy will come to a screeching halt for as long as it takes for this virus to complete its pandemic globally. All inter-personal interactions (including schools, all meetings, working outside the house) will be shut down and unemployment, debt default and all the other characteristics of full depression will follow.
The economic ramifications of the ‘’keep the cat in the bag” approach are logically far less. Whilst our external economy would continue to suffer along with the rest of the world, our internal economy would be positioned to continue in safety, with schools and businesses open and community interaction largely unaffected.
The difference between these two scenarios could not be more stark, and the government must ensure the “keep the cat in the bag” scenario prevails. In choosing this approach the Government’s management of the Covid-19 crisis must now focus on stringently managing arrivals and ensuring zero risk of infection to the community through a thorough protocol, while at the same time addressing the cases already identified domestically.
The desired protocol should see:
1. New arrivals being tested for Covid-19 upon arrival at the international airport
2. Transported by bus-groups (corresponding to flight group) to isolation camps (perhaps commission the thousands of no-longer used camper van rentals?) while the tests are completed (three days?).
3. Upon confirmation that all members of the flight are negative, release back into the community for mandatory (policed) self-isolation for the completion of the 14-day potential incubation period. Such release contingent upon confirmed contact and address details, acknowledgement of self-isolation requirements and advice, and acceptance of statutory fines should the individual be not locatable upon frequent spot checks (along with a hot line for both advice and also citizen’s reporting of violation of these conditions).
Should numbers desiring return exceed the Government’s ability to fully screen them according to such a protocol, then the government should restrict numbers while actively increasing the resources available for the protocol to accommodate them. Ardern’s comment quoted in Stuff today saying that “the scale of the returning New Zealanders meant the most practical response was self-isolation in homes, rather than in centres like the one in Whangaparoa” shows a seriously questionable resolve on behalf of the government to manage this crisis.
Our government has failed us.
Now that coronavirus has been allowed to become established in New Zealand, the catastrophic impact upon our economy (both domestic and external) and lives (current and future) is now inevitable. We are now trying to put the 'cat back in the bag' as best we can.
The management strategy now logically requires three integrated responses:
Preventing introduction of any new sources of infection
Preventing transmission from existing sources of infection
Detecting and eliminating existing sources of infection (isolating and treating)
The rocket-science translation of these three aspects would be:
Closing borders to almost all arrivals and testing and quarantining of those that do arrive until their safety is confirmed
Enforcing lock-down conditions, minimising personal contact, maximising social distance and preventing non-local movement.
Testing extensively to determine existing sources and treating
So then, how are we doing in the management of the pathological aspects of this crisis?
Poor management: Late and incomplete
Good management: And has been responded to by the general population as well as can be anticipated
Poor management: Insufficient detection
If we fail to manage the epidemiology of this crisis now, it will persist and slowly spread domestically. Our ability to persist in the current context is time limited, both socially and economically, and if we fail now, exposure will be inevitable for the majority until a herd immunity or pervasive vaccination context is created. The implications of that journey are playing out now in southern Europe and the USA, and will likely soon be demonstrated in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
Thursday, 09 April NZ Herald¹
"On quarantining, more details on the restrictions for those arriving into New Zealand would be revealed later today - but the cat appears to be out of the bag.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says she is planning "across-the-board" quarantining of all arrivals in New Zealand in the next step to eliminate Covid-19 from New Zealand ... She said arrivals from specific Covid-19 hotspots would not be singled out. It would be "across the board"..."
Finally some action, but the damage has already happened ...
The schools are shut, the businesses are going under, people are becoming unemployed or state-dependent ...
And we will indebt all future generations like never before to mitigate this ...
Sadly, we failed the initial prevention, making best use of our geographic isolation, and now must try the cripplingly-expensive remediation.
Reply to 21 March email: Monday, 06 April 9:30 am
I am writing on behalf of the Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, to thank you for your recent email and your thoughts about the COVID-19 pandemic. Your comments are noted and thank you for bringing them to the attention of the Prime Minister.
I will pass them on.
Best wishes.
Elena Scheule
Office of the Prime Minister
Found myself sadly agreeing with an Australian correspondent, Jason Morrison, reported in NewsHub², with excerpts below:
Coronavirus: New Zealand, Australia's economies 'destroyed' by COVID-19 responses Jason Morrison: 20 April 2020
New Zealand and Australia's governments have attracted global praise for their responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet while the countries reign in their respective outbreaks, they continue to grapple with their floundering economies - a casualty exacerbated by responses that did too little, too late, according to Australian correspondent Jason Morrison.
"Both of our economies will take ages to get back from this. I'll never see [Australia] not in debt - I doubt my children will. The only way back from this is to be damaging to business and enterprise in order to tax the backside off it to rebuild some of the damage we've caused. Tell me how that's a positive." ...
Both governments failed when they needed to act, then they acted and they acted so dramatically, when the horse had [already] bolted - so we're splitting hairs here," he said. ...
New Zealand has been hailed for its rapid implementation of stringent yet effective initiatives, guided by a compassionate Prime Minister and the crystal-clear communication of the unflappable Director-General of Health, Dr Ashley Bloomfield. Yet there have also been hesitations and mistakes, with a shaky start to initial border controls, concerns over our capability to contact trace and … Health Minister disregarding lockdown protocol. ...
"We've got this sense from the government that they want to be congratulated for doing, well - what they could have prevented. We're saying 'well done' for doing what you had to do because you failed to do what you should have done, back when it all started. That's sort of the problem," Morrison said.
It was a month and a half ago where suggestions of closing the borders were considered... The craziness of all of this is being upset about causing some short-term pain to a small group of people from a corner of the planet, yet here we are having no hesitation [in] causing a huge damage to decent, normal and average people's lives," he claimed. "I always find it quite amazing with the government how easy it is to overreact for the mass[es]... they failed us in that opportunity, both sides of the Tasman. ...
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Current confirmed and probable cases: NZ - 296 cases per million citizens (1431 on 4.9 million)
Australia - slightly better at 262 cases per million citizens (6540 on 25 million)
For comparison, Taiwan closed and responded before the horse bolted Taiwan - eighteen cases per million citizens (425 on 23.8 million)
Schools open, economy functioning. No economic collapse, depression or massive unemployment envisaged. No debt that will cripple the future generations … and accountability rather than a constant media sales pitch